Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said he agreed to deploy a joint contingent of Russian and Belarusian forces to the Ukrainian border in response to alleged threats from Ukraine, Reuters reported Oct. 10. Why It Matters: The joint contingent will likely be deployed along the Belarus-Ukraine border, forcing Kyiv to deploy a significant part of its reserves toward Belarus rather than along the front in southern Ukraine. This diversion of Ukrainian resources may help Russian forces seize the initiative in the south, especially if Russia's newly mobilized troops are ready to attack in the coming weeks, as is expected. Putin could use the opportunity to conduct a false-flag provocation against Belarus, but this is unlikely because Lukashenko would likely still refuse to join the Russia-Ukraine war.