Rodger Baker: Hello, I'm Rodger Baker, Director of the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE. This podcast is brought to you by RANE Worldview, the premier digital publication for objective geopolitical intelligence and analysis. Subscribe today at raneworldview.com.

Ryan Bohl:: Welcome to RANE's Essential Geopolitics podcast. I'm Ryan Bohl in for Emily Donahue. Thanks for joining us. Let's talk about Kenya. It is a regional hub for many international businesses. It is one of Africa's most globally integrated states and is known for how its democracy functions. Kenya's general elections are on August 9th. Here with details is Clara Brackbill, RANE's Sub-Sahara Africa analyst. Great to have you along, Clara. 00:00:27

Clara Brackbill:: Hi, Ryan. Great to be here. 00:00:53

Ryan Bohl:: So can we start with who the candidates are and -- and what we need to know about them? 00:00:55

Clara Brackbill:: Yes, definitely. So in Kenya, there are two dominant parties, the first of which is the Azimio la Umoja coalition, and that is led by one of the frontrunners for this upcoming election, Raila Odinga. And Odinga has run for president several times. He previously served as prime minister and is very much part of the of Kenyans tradition of dynastic politics. His family has been involved in Kenyan politics for -- for generations. His vice president is Martha Karua. And Martha is widely known, widely respected, and also the first woman to be on a major party's ticket. And what's especially notable about -- about Karua is that she has no corruption charges that have been levied against her, which can't be said for the other candidates and -- and is particularly significant in Kenya. 00:01:01

And then on -- on the opposing side, we have William Ruto. And Ruto is leading the One Kenya Alliance and is -- is positioning himself as a political outsider. And this is interesting because Ruto is actually the current deputy president. So this -- this outsider positioning actually comes from the breakdown in relations between Ruto and Kenya's current president, Uhuru Kenyatta. And the two had a falling out in 2018, which then led to an alliance between Odinga, Ruto's opponent and Kenyatta. So since that handshake agreement between Ruto and Kenyatta, I'm sorry, between Odinga and Kenyatta, Ruto has been in a way the political outsider and Ruto's --Ruto's VP candidate is Rigathi Gachagua, and both of them are -- are positioning themselves as advocates for Kenya's youth. Their motto is Hustler Nation. So they're -- so they're running on a platform of trying to empower grassroots economic development from the ground up.

Ryan Bohl:: So that sets the stage with the candidates. But can you go a little bit deeper and provide us with a little bit of background on how Kenya's elections are historically decided? 00:03:01

Clara Brackbill:: Yes, definitely. So, to win a presidency in Kenya, a candidate must win more than half of the national vote and at least a quarter of the ballots cast in half of Kenya's 47 counties. So this requires broad geographic as well as popular support. So with that in mind, there are several constituencies that have been historically important to winning the election. And the first and most decisive of which is the Kikuyu vote. The Kikuyus are Kenya's biggest ethnic group, and they're generally located in -- in the central region of the country. And they're also, the Kikuyus also have a very strong historical connection to Kenyan politics and the presidency. So current President Kenyatta is from the Kikuyu ethnic group. And notably, while neither Ruto nor Odinga, the two frontrunners are Kikuyu. Both of their running mates, both of their vice presidential candidates are in an attempt to gain support from that really decisive group. 00:03:09

Now, of course, it remains to be seen whether or not Kikuyus will vote as a bloc or whether the vote will split. And those outcomes will be determinative, I think. And then two other constituencies that candidates are really looking to -- to cater to are the youth vote and then also the women's vote. Now, obviously, Ruto's platform of the Hustler Nation is a -- is a call to... to Kenyan youth voters, especially because youth unemployment is so high as well as economic challenges are -- arereally daunting in this moment. And then Odinga obviously is -- is attempting to -- to gain support from women voters by appointing Martha Karua as his vice president. Now, I don't think that -- that youth voters and women voters will -- will vote as one in Kenya or anywhere. But in this case, these seem to be two really attractive blocs that -- that candidates are attempting to cater to.

Ryan Bohl:: So that kind of gives us an idea of the constituencies that they're -- they're trying to go for. Is there anybody who would be decisive in terms of how this election might go? Is there one bloc that -- that you're looking towards as a possible coalition that could define the next Kenyan government? 00:05:17

Clara Brackbill:: Yes. So -- so the Kikuyu bloc is -- is one that is, as I said, particularly decisive. And also the Kikuyu vote is one that those of us who are watching this election closely are looking towards to see whether or not this election will be similar to the 2007 election in terms of electoral violence. So past elections, most notably the 2000... 2007 election experienced widespread violence, looting, property damage, business disruptions. And those -- those disruptions were in part motivated by ethnic grievances. And so in this particular election, the scenario in which we're predicting would elicit the most violent reaction is one in which, well, first of all, the results of the election are -- are close and so contested. And then second of all, an election in which a previous agreement between ethnic groups isn't adhered to. So what I mean by that is when Kenyatta, Kenya's current president, was elected in 2017, many of Ruto, the current deputy president -- president and One Kenya Alliance's current candidate, many of Ruto supporters from his own ethnic group, which are the Kalenjins voted for Kenyatta, who is a Kikuyu, with the understanding that after Kenyatta's two terms, the Kikuyu bloc would -- would then support Ruto, who is a Kalenjin. So if Ruto loses to the Kenyatta-Odinga alliance, the Kalenjin-Kikuyu violence, which... which is in part what spurred that widespread violence in 2017, has the potential to spiral out of control. And if that violence does erupt, the ongoing food and fuel crisis, inflation, reduced purchasing power, all of those economic grievances will likely exacerbate that violence, leading to greater looting and unrest. 00:05:34

Ryan Bohl:: And final question, if the unrest scenario starts to escalate, are Kenya's security forces positioned to tampen down that unrest, or could it spiral into a greater crisis? 00:07:37

Clara Brackbill:: Yeah, that's a good question. So the -- the National Election Commission recently released a report that highlighted 10 counties throughout the country that are particularly likely to experience election-related violence. And in those counties, we know that ahead of the election, we can expect security forces to deploy. And, you know, given past experience, notably in 2007 as well as 2017, although to a lesser extent because of that history, security forces are -- are preparing for -- for such a scenario. The fear is, especially in urban settings, that -- that the looting and violence will be so widespread that security forces aren't able to suppress it in -- in a peaceful manner. So while -- while, yes, they are preparing and attempting to prepare, the -- the reality is that those efforts may not be successful. 00:07:47

Ryan Bohl:: Well, thank you, Clara. Clara Brackbill is a Sub-Saharan Africa analyst with RANE. You can read her geopolitical guidance in RANE Worldview. Right now, there's an extremely affordable subscription rate. Check it out at raneworldview.com. That's r-a-n-e worldview.com. I'm Ryan Bohl. Thanks for listening. 00:08:44

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