
A farmer harvests wheat June 14, 2022, on a field near Izmail, in the Odesa region of Ukraine.
Both Ukraine and Russia are interested in preserving a grain export deal unblocking Ukraine's Black Sea ports, but its implementation will be under constant threat as Moscow considers continued control over Ukraine's grain exports as critical leverage over Kyiv and the West. On July 22, Russian and Ukrainian officials each signed separate agreements with Turkey and the United Nations allowing the export of grain from three of Ukraine's ports on the Black Sea, including the one in the Ukrainian city of Odesa. The deal will be valid for 120 days from the signing date, with the possibility of an extension, and aims to enable Ukraine to export 5 million metric tons of grain per month, near its pre-war average. But on July 23, Russian missiles struck Odesa's port infrastructure, triggering widespread concern that the deal could be canceled.