The Russia-Ukraine conflict entered a new stage on Feb. 21 after Russia moved to end the Minsk peace deal by formally recognizing eastern Ukraine’s two separatist republics as independent states. In response, the West has announced the first round of economic sanctions against Moscow over the crisis. With the prospect of Russian troops crossing into Ukrainian-controlled territory now a distinct possibility, the potential escalation or de-escalation of the conflict will hinge on the evolution of the following developments in the coming days: 1) The Donbas conflict On Feb. 22, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Moscow’s recognition of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region goes beyond the territories that the rebels currently control and includes their claims over the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, which are currently controlled by Ukraine.