
Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny during a court hearing Feb. 20, 2021, in Moscow.
Were the imprisoned Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny — whose health is deteriorating — to die, the Kremlin would likely face near-term domestic unrest and additional Western sanctions, but Navalny's death would not change the outcome of September's parliamentary elections or weaken President Vladimir Putin's grip on power. On March 24, Navalny's lawyers for the first time publicly raised concerns about severe pain in his back and right leg after they were denied access to him. Navalny previously asked his lawyers not to publicize his health status, which reportedly began to worsen earlier in March and could continue to deteriorate. Navalny wrote on social media on March 31 that he will begin a hunger strike to protest his prison conditions, two days after he wrote in a separate online post that he risks being sent to "torture like" solitary confinement for what he portrayed as frivolous prison rule violations.