What We're Tracking Russia-Ukraine tensions soar even higher as Donbas separatists evacuate civilians. Russia-Ukraine tensions will continue to climb next week as the Russian-occupied Donbas separatist republics evacuate their territory and repeat dubious claims that a Ukrainian attack is imminent. Russia and Belarus will conduct exercises through Feb. 20, including involving nuclear forces, that are likely intended to deter increased NATO involvement or support for Ukraine in case of a significant escalation of the Donbas conflict. Moscow probably believes rising tensions will pressure Kyiv into dialogue with the Russia-backed Donbas separatists, thereby constituting Kyiv caving in to a key element of Russia's interpretation of the Minsk agreements. Kyiv could do so, or provide verbal assurances that it will, to assuage Russia. But even if Kyiv does not change its position, Russia can maintain leverage with other means, including prolonged threatening deployments near NATO members and Ukraine. A possible U.S.