Amid uncertainty as to whether Uzbekistan's longtime leader, Islam Karimov, is still alive, speculation is running rampant about who his successor might be. Technically, Senate Speaker Nigmatulla Yuldashev would assume Karimov's responsibilities for up to three months until an election could be held, should rumors of the president's death prove true. But the official, legal transition is rarely what matters most in countries where dictatorships are hidden beneath the guise of democracy. Instead, the more important thing to watch is the power struggle unfolding among Uzbekistan's clans, which have long been deeply divided along regional lines. The country's largest clans — Tashkent, Samarkand and Fergana — have run Uzbek politics for nearly a century. The minor clans, Jizzakh, Kashkadarya, Khorezm and Karakalpak, have flitted among them in the meantime.