Supporters of Han Kuo-yu show their enthusiasm for the populist mayor of Kaohsiung City during a campaign event in Taipei on June 1. Han is one of several candidates competing to win the presidential nomination of the main opposition Kuomintang party.
Editor's Note: This assessment is part of a series of analyses supporting Stratfor's upcoming 2019 Third-Quarter Forecast. These assessments are designed to provide more context and in-depth analysis of key developments over the next quarter. Taiwan is preparing to enter a fierce campaign season as it looks ahead to presidential and legislative elections on Jan. 11, 2020, with the election result set to determine the tenor of Taiwan's relations with China for years to come. Since the election of Tsai Ing-wen as president in 2016, the 180-kilometer-wide (112-mile-wide) strait separating Taiwan from mainland China has become a center of tensions between China and the United States as Tsai and her government have pursued a pro-independence agenda, China has stepped up its efforts to militarily intimidate Taiwan, and the United States under President Donald Trump has increased its support for Taiwan.
