Syria and Israel's new intel-sharing agreement will likely reduce cross-border tensions in the coming months, but structural constraints and unresolved security dynamics mean the arrangement will remain fragile and prone to renewed escalation, limiting prospects for a sustainable, broader security pact. On Jan. 6, Syria and Israel announced that they had agreed to establish a joint mechanism aimed at sharing intelligence and coordinating military de-escalation under the supervision of the United States. The mechanism will also facilitate engagement and commercial opportunities between the two neighboring countries. Additionally, the new framework envisions the creation of a southern economic zone in Syria designed to incentivize stability through investment, reconstruction and cross-border economic activity — mirroring projects promoted by U.S. President Donald Trump for Gaza and southern Lebanon, where economic incentives are intended to complement security arrangements and reduce incentives for renewed violence.