The arrival of migrants to the European Union by sea will increase in the coming months due to improving weather conditions. But factors including security agreements with the countries of origin and transit of migrants, as well as tougher EU migration policies, mean that the numbers will probably be lower than during the 2015 crisis. Migration to Europe by sea follows a cyclical pattern, with arrivals peaking between June and October when weather conditions are optimal in the Mediterranean. The number of asylum seekers and economic migrants arriving at the bloc, however, has fallen every year since 2015 — a trend that will probably continue in 2020. The eastern Mediterranean route will likely be this year’s most volatile migration route, as Turkey continues to leverage its gatekeeper role in political disputes with Brussels and Athens by alternatively opening and closing its eastern borders to Greece.