Author’s Note: I was wrong about Ukraine. I concluded that the Russians would constrain their activity to the east of the Dnieper River. I am proud to say that my colleagues at RANE challenged my assessment, as our team built a robust set of scenarios, and refused to rule out Moscow taking a maximalist position on Ukraine. The central reason for my miscalculation was that I emphasized strategic logic and failed to adequately consider political ideology. This often works, but individuals, not logic, are the ultimate decision-makers. Political ideology can at times grow so strong that it becomes a reality in itself — a factor just as significant as physical territory, balance of forces, economics or demographics. As an analyst, it is vital to not only accept a missed call, but to seek to understand and learn from it.