In the first part of this series, Stratfor discussed the political situation in Iraq in light of the withdrawal of U.S. forces. Understanding that political situation is key to understanding Iraq's security situation. Violence is inseparable from Iraqi politics. Most of the factions in Iraq operate within the country's political framework — the notable exception being al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) — and have militias to enhance and defend their political power. These militant groups commonly engage in organized crime to generate revenue for themselves and their factions and to influence political struggles. Not wanting to give U.S. forces an excuse to remain in the country, almost all sides have worked to keep violence to a relatively low level in recent months. But with U.S. forces having left, there already have been indications that the artificial calm is fading.