A man wearing a surgical mask walks in an empty square in front of a cathedral in Locri, Italy, on April 7, 2020. As of April 10, Italy had reported 143,626 COVID-19 cases with 28,470 deaths.
For many governments in Southern Europe, containing the COVID-19 contagion in the coming weeks may prove to be the easy part. After the immediate health crisis subsides in the region, much bigger economic and political troubles will quickly follow in the second half of the year. Countries including France, Italy, Spain, Greece and Portugal will experience deep recessions and severe fiscal problems, which in some cases will be made worse by the return of political instability and the strengthening of nationalist opposition parties. Deep Recessions Most, if not all, countries in Southern Europe will be in a recession this year because of the quarantine measures implemented to contain COVID-19. Many economies in the region were already slowing down before the pandemic. In the fourth quarter of 2019, France’s economy contracted by 0.1 percent, Italy’s by 0.3 percent and Greece’s by 0.7 percent.
