Porters carry goods offloaded from foreign ships docked at the harbor in Mogadishu on April 24, 2013. In Mogadishu's economic heart, Bakara market -- where a U.S. helicopter was shot down in 1993 in scenes made famous by the Hollywood film "Black Hawk Down" -- the scars of frontline fighting that raged less than two years ago have faded. Somalia, once a byword for war and anarchy, appears to be slowly turning a corner, with Islamist forces on the back foot despite launching a series of bloody guerrilla attacks.
Editor's Note: This assessment is part of a series of analyses supporting Stratfor's upcoming 2019 Annual Forecast. These assessments are designed to provide more context and in-depth analysis on key developments in the coming year. The Horn of Africa has entered a period of profound change. Renewed ties between Ethiopia and Eritrea in late 2018 have led to a rapprochement between Eritrea and Somalia. Meanwhile, reports suggest that Eritrea will also renew its relations with Sudan and Djibouti in the months ahead. And in an effort to take advantage of the region's high profile and emerging stability, Ethiopia's ambitious leader has even floated the idea of reviving the landlocked country's navy.
