
Although a U.S. troop drawdown from Iraq and a consequent decrease in U.S. influence there is unlikely to lead to a resurgence in the Islamic State or to have significant economic impacts, tensions between Iraqi nationalists — especially Shiite nationalists — and Iranian-backed pro-Tehran Shiites could cause violence in the event of growing Iranian influence. On Aug. 15, the Iraqi Foreign Ministry announced a delay in revealing the date of the U.S. troop drawdown in Iraq amid heightened regional tensions following the assassinations of a senior Hezbollah official in Lebanon and former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in late July. Even though the United States and Iraq were reportedly close to releasing a timeline for the U.S. drawdown, details regarding the timeline and the type of security arrangement that could emerge were sparse.