Western efforts in the Sahel, like the U.N. mission in Mali, are unlikely to wane anytime soon, but neither are they likely to expand in the face of growing militancy. This will open opportunities for Russia to expand its footprint in the Sahel.
Editor's Note: This assessment is part of a series of analyses supporting Stratfor's 2020 Annual Forecast. These assessments are designed to provide more context and in-depth analysis of key developments over the next quarter and throughout the year. Western reluctance to increase its commitment to security in the militancy-plagued Sahel creates opportunities for Russia there. As part of its broader diplomatic offensive in Africa, Moscow already has been working to upgrade its military relationship with the traditionally French-aligned states of the Sahel, former colonies of France. For Russia, a greater security role in the Sahel, a region of West Africa at the southern end of the Sahara, could mean supplying military equipment and services — such as the deployment of private military forces or training by the Russian military proper — in exchange for minerals extracted locally.
