
A digital board displaying currency exchange rates in Moscow on March 18, 2020.
The current crisis caused by low oil prices and COVID-19 bolsters skeptical perceptions of Russia's 2020 growth forecast. With no revenues entering the country's National Wealth Fund at current oil prices, financing for Russian President Vladimir Putin's much-hyped social spending plan could become impossible to carry out. Growing inflation, rising prices and declining purchasing power are already unavoidable due to COVID-19 and low oil prices, with implications for political stability and elections in Russia. As elsewhere, Russia's stock markets have suffered and the ruble has continued to weaken. Low oil prices meanwhile threaten the sustainability of Russia's government budget. While Russia currently has substantial reserves that will allow it to weather immediate budget shortfalls, some anticipated sources of government spending may become unavailable. Meanwhile, Russia's economy may stall out and possibly even see a contraction in GDP, while rising inflation will further suppress the already-dwindling purchasing power of Russia's population.