
While Israel and Hezbollah are ultimately interested in a negotiated solution, both are currently on an escalatory path that could shift their conflict from cross-border attacks to limited Israeli incursions within southern Lebanon and, in a low-probability but high-impact scenario, to a full-on war that could eventually also involve the United States and Iran. On June 18, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) approved operational plans for a cross-border operation into southern Lebanon, in the latest sign of steady Israeli intent to conduct major military operations to push the Iran-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah away from the Israeli border. On June 19, in a televised address, Hezbollah's chief Hassan Nasrallah threatened Israel with a war without redlines, should one be ''imposed'' on the group amid growing threats of an Israeli military offensive against Lebanon.