Skirmishes along the line of contact between Azerbaijan and Armenia have been a regular occurrence over the past few months. As Stratfor has previously noted , violence in the region has escalated since the Ukraine crisis broke out, including a spike in cross-border casualties in August 2014 and the downing of an Armenian helicopter by Azerbaijani forces in November. This increase in hostilities appears to be a product of Azerbaijan's renewed assertiveness. Baku may no longer feel as threatened by an Armenian — and by extension, Russian — reprisal as it once did. This could also explain Armenia's subdued and cautious responses to acts such as the helicopter downing; Yerevan knows that Moscow is still very focused on the Ukrainian theater. But this uptick in violence does not necessarily mean that a return to full-scale military conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is looming.