
U.S.-brokered talks between Russia and Ukraine will likely continue, and to deliver limited confidence-building steps. But they are unlikely to produce a near-term settlement, as Russia will continue to press its territorial demands while using diplomacy to manage sanctions pressure and build leverage ahead of a spring-summer offensive. On Feb. 4-5, delegations from Russia, Ukraine and the United States held a second round of trilateral talks, which resulted in a reciprocal exchange of 314 prisoners of war (157 per side), the first such exchange in five months. All three sides described the talks as "constructive" and "productive," saying discussions focused on mechanisms to implement and monitor a ceasefire, unresolved territorial issues, including the Eastern Ukrainian region of the Donbas, and possible security arrangements for Ukraine. Other outcomes of the talks included a formal announcement to resume high-level U.S.