Editor's Note: This assessment is part of a series of analyses supporting Stratfor's upcoming 2019 Second-Quarter Forecast. These assessments are designed to provide more context and in-depth analysis on key developments over the next quarter. 2019 will be a year marked by a weakening economy and growing political uncertainty in Italy. In December 2018, Italy's coalition government convinced the European Union it would implement an expansionary budget while keeping the country's deficit at 2 percent of gross domestic product (GPD). This promise was based on expectations of economic growth that were ambitious even then, but seem increasingly unlikely now. The country is, once again, officially in a recession after its GDP contracted in the last two quarters of 2018. And to salt the wound, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently downgraded its 2019 growth projection for Italy from 1 percent to 0.6 percent.