Iraqi protesters gather in Tahrir Square in Baghdad on Oct. 31, 2019. The ongoing protest movement in Iraq could force some concessions, but a wholesale change of government remains unlikely, at least in the short term.
Editor's Note: This assessment is part of a series of analyses supporting Stratfor's 2020 Annual Forecast. These assessments are designed to provide more context and in-depth analysis of key developments over the next quarter and throughout the year. The protest movements underway in both Iraq and Lebanon share many of the same characteristics, including common complaints about inefficient and corrupt governments that don't deliver what citizens need. They also share a similar future: The prospects that either can effectively pressure their leaders to quickly reform the Iraqi and Lebanese political systems appear slim. That's because, by their very nature, the governing systems in the countries bracketing the Levant are exceptionally difficult to overhaul.
