
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani delivers a speech during a visit to the Central Bank of Iran in Tehran on Feb. 26, 2019.
Editor's Note: This assessment is part of a series of analyses supporting Stratfor's upcoming 2019 Third-Quarter Forecast. These assessments are designed to provide more context and in-depth analysis on key developments over the next quarter. As the U.S. "maximum pressure" campaign continues to hammer his country's economy, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif recently offered a message of defiance, vowing that Iran would weather the storm, given its "PhD in sanctions-busting." His rhetorical description of the Islamic republic's resilience in the face of outside pressure is certainly apt, given its track record of survival. But this time around, the current U.S. pressure campaign poses a risk to one of the fundamental pillars of Iran's economy: Its increasingly fragile banking and financial sector. Iran's economy is certainly suffering under the weight of U.S. sanctions that have taken square aim at oil exports, its biggest source of revenue.