The effects of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation weather phenomenon that contributed to floods, crop failure, heat waves and drought across Latin America in 2023 will persist until the second quarter of 2024. ENSO, more commonly referred to as El Nino , is a naturally occurring weather phenomenon that takes place roughly every two to seven years that drives an increase in sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, altering atmospheric circulation patterns and in turn creating a variety of weather patterns across the globe. In December 2023, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration assigned a 54% probability that the current ENSO system will be "historically strong" — ranking in the top five in terms of the "temperature anomaly," or distance from a 30-year average — but that weather conditions associated with the phenomenon should gradually weaken between March and May.