Has Central Asia Stabilized?

The question now is, have political transitions in Central Asia -- and the political systems of these countries in general -- stabilized and entered into a new, less volatile normal? The answer is more complex than the seemingly smooth changes taking place appear.

(iStock)

Central Asia is changing. In October, Kyrgyzstan had its first peaceful transfer of power from one elected president to another. Less than a year earlier, Uzbekistan's succession of power unfolded in a similarly peaceful manner. And in recent months, Kazakhstan's own long-serving president has made preparations for his eventual succession. These developments contrast with the volatile political transitions that came earlier in Central Asia's post-Soviet history, namely two violent revolutions in Kyrgyzstan, a bloody civil war in Tajikistan and an unexpected succession in Turkmenistan. The widespread instability expected as a result of Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan's political transitions hasn't — at least, not yet — come to pass. These more stable transitions are significant, given Central Asia's importance as an oil and natural gas-producing region, a hotspot for militancy, and a locus of strategic interest for foreign powers such as Russia, China and the United States.