Editor's Note: This article is the third installment in an ongoing RANE series on the shifting patterns of global trade. The first installment provided a broad overview of the geopolitical and economic implications of these shifts. The second examined how recent changes to U.S. trade and tariff policies will affect nearshoring trends in Canada, Latin America and the Caribbean. Rising tensions between Israel, the United States and Iran are increasing the likelihood of strikes on Iranian territory that could trigger an Iranian retaliation against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a development that would increase oil prices, generate trade disruptions and, over time, could incentivize Gulf states to find alternative oil export routes.