
Mexican authorities have recaptured Sinaloa cartel leader Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman Loera, and the media have had a field day, but as with his escape, Mexico's cartel landscape remains relatively unchanged. Fissures and infighting among drug cartels are redefining the drug trade. Stratfor categorizes Mexican organized criminal groups by the distinct geographic areas from which they emerged , and it is clear that the trajectories of Mexico's three regional organized crime umbrellas are set. Since the late 1980s demise of the Guadalajara cartel, which controlled drug trade routes into the United States through most of Mexico, Mexican cartels have been dividing into more geographically compact, regional crime networks. This trend, which we call "Balkanization," has continued for more than two decades and has affected all of the major crime groups in Mexico, including Los Zetas and the Sinaloa Federation, which until recently were the country's two most powerful cartels.