The standoff between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the breakaway territory of Nagorno-Karabakh appears to be entering a new phase. Both sides have ramped up military exercises in recent months and attended frequent meetings with Russian officials, fostering speculation in local media that a settlement may be forthcoming. Indeed, the countries' foreign ministers plan to meet on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly summit in New York on Sept. 24-25. But this is not necessarily a watershed moment. A solution to the conflict would require a reworking of the web of political alliances and relationships that span the Caucasus region, which could be a disruptive process. Still, ongoing tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine have dramatically changed the political situation in the region since 2014; Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan might be poised to make changes in Nagorno-Karabakh.