
A Ukrainian serviceman in a trench on the frontline with Russia-backed separatistsApril 23, 2021, near the town of Krasnogorivka in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine.
Russia's buildup of troops along the Ukrainian border has reignited speculation regarding the future of the Donbas conflict and Moscow's intentions in eastern Ukraine more broadly. For now, the Kremlin's primary motivation is to increase its leverage in impending European security talks with the United States and NATO amid Moscow's push for "security guarantees." These concerns have been particularly acute amid Moscow's months-long expressions of dissatisfaction with the situation in Ukraine. But Moscow's opening position, which Russia's foreign ministry unveiled on Dec. 17, contains demands against NATO expansion to the former Soviet Union or even to develop bilateral military cooperation with these countries, both of which have already taken place and are non-starters for the alliance.