An armed Iranian speedboat in the Strait of Hormuz on April 30. A war between the United States and Iran would have major global economic and energy consequences.
Editor's Note : This assessment is part of a series of analyses supporting Stratfor's upcoming 2019 Third-Quarter Forecast. These assessments are designed to provide more context and in-depth analysis of key developments over the next quarter . The United States is sending additional forces to the Persian Gulf as Iran prepares and mobilizes its army; together, the countries' actions are significantly increasing the possibility of war. Compounding the risk is a faction within the White House, epitomized by hawkish national security adviser John Bolton, that is more eager than others in the administration to start a conflict with Iran. Bolton, naturally, has ideological counterparts in Iran, especially in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) , who are also spoiling for a fight. But as leaders in Washington and Tehran have emphasized, the two countries remain wary of a costly war against each other.
