
Members of the Taliban participate in talks with the Afghan government on July 18, 2021, in Doha, Qatar.
Most assessments of U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, as well as the predicted advances of the Taliban, focus on two key outcomes: 1) the reversal of Western human rights and standards in the country, particularly for women, and 2) the devolution of Afghanistan into a terrorist base for outward strikes against distant foreign powers. These are not necessarily wrong perceptions, particularly given the history of the Taliban’s first conquest of Afghanistan. In a destabilized Afghanistan, stricken with civil war, the Taliban may again recruit or harbor foreign fighters. Indeed, they are already reportedly working with militant Tajik groups along the Tajikistan border. A drawn-out conflict , or even a limited success in key areas in the south, could very well leave ungoverned space where foreign forces could train, plan and carry out strikes on neighboring countries or internationally.