Editor's note: This assessment is the fourth installment of a series exploring whether Ukraine or Russia is more capable of emerging victorious from a protracted war. The third installment, which argued that longer-term factors had begun to shift significantly in Russia's favor, can be found here , while first and second parts can be found here and here . In August 2023, we argued that Ukraine still had a path to victory on the battlefield but that because Ukraine's counteroffensive had failed and Russia's relative military advantages were on a trajectory to grow amid lackluster Western support, the possibility of Ukraine retaking enough territory to trigger instability in Russia had fallen precipitously. The start of 2024 offers an opportune time to update the narratives we explored six months ago. The Case For Ukrainian Optimism - Not in 2024 but in 2025?