The Ethiopian government's military buildup near the northern Tigray region portends renewed clashes with the Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF. Ethiopia's economic and security constraints, alongside the TPLF's internal divisions, will constrain both sides in pressing ahead with a full-blown escalation before the June 1 general elections, but alternative escalatory scenarios in which severe clashes with neighboring Eritrea are growing more likely. Since early February, Ethiopia's federal government has massed large numbers of tanks, artillery and infantry near the country's northern Tigray region. In response, the TPLF — which effectively controls 65% of Tigray and serves as the region's de facto ruling political party — has pressed ahead with a troop buildup of its own, with TPLF chairman Debretsion Gebremichael saying the group would "not stay idle" if the Ethiopian government breached the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement , which ended the 2020-2022 Tigray War.