Fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh broke out July 31, and skirmishes have continued ever since. More people have been killed or injured in this outbreak of violence than in any incident since the two countries ended their war over the territory in 1994. Many observers wonder whether a new round of war between Armenia and Azerbaijan is possible. Stratfor believes that such a war is unlikely primarily because Russia is Armenia's security guarantor; starting a conflict with Armenia is tantamount to starting a conflict with Russia. That is not a war Baku can win. This dynamic has kept the conflict frozen for the past two decades, and Russia has kept this balance of power intact by supplying weapons to both sides, among other actions.