U.S.-driven tariff uncertainty will remain high in 2026 amid legal threats to the Trump administration's tariff agenda and likely disagreements between the United States and its trading partners over the terms of their trade deals. The U.S. Supreme Court appears poised to strike down tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, including his fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs, at some point in 2026. The White House will seek to replace them under other trade powers. But some of these tools require long, detailed investigations, which could force the White House to choose which countries to tariff. The countries it prioritizes would likely be ones it has focused most of its trade criticism on so far, such as EU member states, Canada and Mexico. Regardless of how the Supreme Court rules, the United States will continue to wield tariffs as a coercive tactic against other countries.