Russia's demographic decline will curtail the means and reach of its foreign policy, but it is unlikely to temper the Kremlin's geopolitical ambitions or reduce the threat it poses to NATO. Moscow will compensate for a shrinking population with nuclear threats, military technological adaptation, asymmetric warfare and smaller, opportunistic commitments abroad. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has suffered a steep population decline driven by collapsing fertility and premature male mortality. The economic implosion of the 1990s, when output fell almost 40%, accelerated both trends. Deaths exceeded births every year from 1992 to 2012, and in 1999 fertility fell to 1.16 children per woman, far below replacement level. Alcohol abuse kept mortality high among working-age men, and male life expectancy did not reach its late-Soviet level until 2013.