Ongoing clashes between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray Peoples' Liberation Front, or TPLF, stand a high chance of devolving into an all-out war in the absence of a rapid de-escalation, which could spark a high-intensity conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea that would likely draw in other countries. On Sept. 23, the TPLF and the Ethiopian government entered their most severe military escalation since the end of the 2020-2022 Tigray war, which, according to some estimates, resulted in 600,000 fatalities. The clashes follow a steady surge in tensions between the two sides in recent years, with the TPLF appearing to have initiated ground fighting following an upsurge in drone strikes by the Ethiopian military and months of sporadic clashes.