Fighting between the Tigray People's Liberation Front, or TPLF, and the Ethiopian government is likely to persist in the coming days despite international mediation efforts, raising the risk of a high-intensity conflict that could escalate regionally. On Sept. 23, the TPLF announced that it had ordered its armed forces into "defensive combat" after what it said was an "open invasion and attack" following clashes with pro-government forces along the border between Ethiopia's northern Tigray and Afar regions. That same day, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's adviser for East African affairs, Getachew Reda, accused the TPLF of launching "an all-out offensive" on government positions in the Afar and Amhara regions. U.S. Ambassador Ervin Jose Massinga backed claims that the TPLF had launched an offensive against pro-government forces.