
A sustained Russia-Ukraine "energy ceasefire" is unlikely over the next three to six months, as Moscow has limited incentives to accept one without significant Ukrainian concessions or credible U.S. pressure, although a short-term reduction in attacks remains possible. On Sept. 22, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine was ready to stop attacks against Russia's energy infrastructure if Moscow did the same. The statement came after U.S. President Donald Trump repeatedly urged Ukraine to halt its attacks on Russian refineries, which he said were pushing energy prices higher. Trump previously claimed on Sept. 14 that Kyiv and Moscow had reached such a deal, although no agreement ultimately materialized. Zelensky said that Ukraine was ready for "any format" of an energy ceasefire, but emphasized that Russia would need to reciprocate. He also raised the need for additional air-defense capabilities with Trump.