The tightly contested Swedish election could produce either a center-left minority government or a right-wing government that brings the far right into the Cabinet for the first time. Either outcome would preserve Sweden's rearmament plans, support for Ukraine and broader resistance to a larger EU budget, diverging mainly on fiscal, migration and climate policy. Sweden will hold general elections on Sept. 13, with most opinion polls giving the center-left opposition a narrow lead. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's center-right Moderates have led a minority government since 2022 alongside the center-right Christian Democrats and Liberals. The government is supported by the far-right, anti-immigration Sweden Democrats, which emerged as the second-largest party in the September 2022 election and for the first time gained direct influence over policy — particularly over migration and crime — while formally remaining outside the government.