Ongoing disruptions to Black Sea grain exports will likely persist through winter, imperiling food security in vulnerable importing countries, weakening 2027 grain production and risking a further rally in wheat prices, but diversified supply networks and global cereal stocks should prevent a repeat of the 2022 price spike. Ukraine's high-tempo drone campaign against Russian shipping in the Sea of Azov and Black Sea has triggered sustained Russian retaliation against Ukrainian ports and vessels, reducing grain exports from both countries to a fraction of the volumes seen previously during the peak harvest season. Repeated Russian strikes on Ukrainian grain terminals, port infrastructure, dry bulk carriers calling at Ukrainian ports and merchant vessels at sea have imposed a de facto blockade on the Odesa cluster of deep-water ports: Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Pivdennyi.