President Bola Tinubu is the frontrunner in Nigeria's January 2027 election owing to his sway over state institutions and opposition divisions, but the presidential race remains competitive, with rising polarization heightening the risk of violence and potentially leading to minor disruptions to the country's oil production. On Aug. 19, the electoral campaign for Nigeria's Jan. 16 general elections officially began. The campaign began just days after the independent governor of southwestern Osun state, Ademola Adeleke, was reelected in an off-cycle gubernatorial election with 51.9% of the vote, against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, who received 45.1%. The Osun election was marked by heightened tensions, including widespread political intimidation and dozens of instances of politically-motivated violence that resulted in the confirmed killing of several party workers. This highlights the risks surrounding Nigeria's upcoming general elections, in which President Bola Tinubu of the APC will seek a second term.