In the coming weeks, Iran is likely to sustain a calibrated pressure campaign to try to force U.S. concessions, but a likely U.S. refusal will lead to a growing risk of wider escalation even as another interim deal remains a less likely but plausible off-ramp. On Aug. 18, U.K. Maritime Trade Operations reported that "an unknown projectile" struck a vessel as it exited the Persian Gulf through Omani waters in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a "crew casualty." The attack came a day after a senior Iranian official said that Tehran would escalate "within weeks" if the United States did not implement the 60-day June memorandum of understanding that formally expired on Aug. 17. The official added that if the United States did not adhere to the deadline, Iran would conduct a military operation to break the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports.