What We're Tracking Talks on a U.S.-Iran peace deal continue. Over the next week, the United States and Iran will continue negotiations on a memorandum of understanding to end their ongoing conflict, but a near-term diplomatic breakthrough that results in the signing of a finalized deal remains unlikely. Despite reports that recent discussions have narrowed remaining gaps, significant friction persists over the release of frozen Iranian assets, the sequencing of events and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This will, in turn, sustain the risk of more sporadic U.S.-Iran military clashes over the coming week, as well as of Iranian strikes on commercial shipping near Hormuz. Even so, Gulf countries will likely urge the United States to refrain from a major escalation to avoid Iranian retaliatory strikes against their infrastructure. European Parliament votes on the EU-U.S. trade deal.