What We're Tracking An elevated risk of sporadic U.S.-Iran clashes. There will be an elevated risk of sporadic U.S.-Iran clashes over the next week, as no signs of a diplomatic breakthrough in U.S.-Iran negotiations on a memorandum of understanding have emerged. The Strait of Hormuz area and U.S. military sites in Gulf countries will face risks of attacks, though Iranian retaliation could also extend to civilian infrastructure, such as airports, resulting in elevated personal safety risk and transportation disruptions. Although ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations mean that the United States is disincentivized from escalating against Iran, one could still happen if negotiations collapse or an Iranian attack results in numerous U.S. casualties. Meanwhile, Israel will likely conduct additional attacks against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon amid ongoing U.S. pressure for Israel to hold back to facilitate U.S.-Iran discussions. Armenia holds parliamentary elections.