What We're Tracking 

An elevated risk of sporadic U.S.-Iran clashes. There will be an elevated risk of sporadic U.S.-Iran clashes over the next week, as no signs of a diplomatic breakthrough in U.S.-Iran negotiations on a memorandum of understanding have emerged. The Strait of Hormuz area and U.S. military sites in Gulf countries will face risks of attacks, though Iranian retaliation could also extend to civilian infrastructure, such as airports, resulting in elevated personal safety risk and transportation disruptions. Although ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations mean that the United States is disincentivized from escalating against Iran, one could still happen if negotiations collapse or an Iranian attack results in numerous U.S. casualties. Meanwhile, Israel will likely conduct additional attacks against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon amid ongoing U.S. pressure for Israel to hold back to facilitate U.S.-Iran discussions. 

Armenia holds parliamentary elections. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian's ruling Civil Contract party is favored to retain power despite weak approval ratings. The vote will serve as a gauge of the influence of pro-Russian opposition figures and narratives as Armenia deepens cooperation with the European Union and the United States while remaining economically linked to Russia and formally tied to Russian-led institutions. Democracy watchdogs and local media have reported an increase in pro-Kremlin messaging ahead of the vote, including claims that closer Western ties would bring economic costs and instability. Moscow has denied directing such activity, but also warned that a turn toward the European Union would weaken existing economic integration. A clear Civil Contract victory would likely allow Yerevan to continue pursuing a peace treaty with Azerbaijan and expanding Western ties without fully severing economic links with Russia. A stronger pro-Russian opposition presence in parliament would meanwhile give Moscow more channels with which to constrain Pashinian's foreign policy and complicate Armenia's outreach to the West.  

Xi goes to North Korea. Chinese state media Xinhua and North Korean state media KCNA both announced June 5 that President Xi Jinping would visit Pyongyang, North Korea, to meet with supreme leader Kim Jong Un from June 8-9, without citing possible topics of discussion. Beijing likely aims to rekindle long-dormant diplomatic relations to maintain its influence over North Korea amid a rapidly deepening Russia-North Korea partnership, and to facilitate an advisory role for China in the event that Pyongyang revives talks with the United States stalled since 2019. China will be hesitant to offer North Korea the same kind of defense industrial cooperation that Russia has in recent years, given Beijing's concerns about regional stability. But Beijing will likely be open, if not in this meeting than in follow-up talks, to deepening travel and infrastructure ties. U.S. and international sanctions will, however, curtail China's ability to expand economic ties with North Korea.

Peru's presidential runoff. Peruvians will choose June 7 between the right-wing Keiko Fujimori and the left-wing Roberto Sanchez. The election occurs amid heightened polarization, fraud allegations and heightened political instability in Peru, which has had eight presidents in 10 years. Authorities took more than a month to confirm the first-round results, so delays could occur, likely triggering demonstrations. Fujimori, the daughter of long-time former President Alberto Fujimori, is seeking the presidency for a fourth time. She would likely manage to secure a coalition in Congress to implement a pro-business agenda that prioritizes macroeconomic orthodoxy while pursuing a less confrontational security strategy. Sanchez served as minister of foreign trade and tourism under former President Pedro Castillo between July 2021 and December 2022. His platform focuses on structural reforms, including a new constitution to prioritize the rights of Indigenous and rural populations, coupled with interventionist economic policies and the deployment of the army to fight crime.

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