What We're Tracking
U.S.-Iran discussions, Israel-Lebanon negotiations. Discussions over a potential memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran will likely persist, but unless either the United States or Iran makes concessions on the sequencing of reopening the Strait of Hormuz or the future of Iran's highly enriched uranium, a diplomatic breakthrough remains unlikely. As such, there is a persistent risk of sporadic U.S.-Iran clashes, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, and of U.S. military escalation to try to break the political deadlock. Separately, the next round of U.S.-mediated Israel-Lebanon negotiations are scheduled for June 2-3. Israel's ongoing military operations in Lebanon and major gaps between Israeli and Lebanese demands, however, make progress unlikely.
Ethiopians vote. Ethiopia will hold general elections June 1 for the country's lower house and regional assemblies. Localized violence is likely to erupt in several rural areas over disagreements about the election's conduct and various local disputes, and voting is unlikely to take place in most of northern Tigray due to tensions between the federal government and local authorities. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party is virtually certain to win the vote in a landslide in the lower house, given the absence of a broad opposition coalition and the severe challenges facing opposition parties' campaigning efforts, including insecurity in many parts of the country and government restrictions. While the risk of sustained and nationwide postelection protests will be limited, the Tigray Peoples' Liberation Front — which de facto governs most of Tigray — is unlikely to recognize the outcome of the vote when results are announced June 11, which could spark a fresh crisis with the federal government.
Brussels to unveil tech sovereignty package. The European Commission will present its long-awaited tech sovereignty package June 3, including a revised Chips Act 2.0 and a proposed Cloud and AI Development Act. Alongside the adoption of a Strategic Roadmap for Digitalization and AI in Energy, the measures aim to reduce Europe's dependence on U.S. and Asian technologies. The Chips Act 2.0 is set to mark a major shift from the original 2023 legislation, pivoting from supply-side subsidies — which largely failed to attract advanced manufacturing at scale and left Europe's global chip market share stuck at about 10% — toward demand-side instruments such as joint public buying, long-term purchase commitments and a structured matchmaking platform between EU chip producers and users, with a particular focus on AI applications. The package will then enter the ordinary legislative procedure, with adoption unlikely before late 2027 and funding hinging on the EU's 2028-34 long-term budget negotiations.
Colombia holds first-round presidential elections. Colombians will vote May 31 to pick their next president in a polarized race that could lead to either the continuation of current left-wing policies or a sharp shift to the right, depending on the results of a likely runoff June 21. The left-wing Sen. Ivan Cepeda is leading, and will likely win the first round vote by pledging to continue President Gustavo Petro's social programs, lax fiscal policies and negotiated approach to the country's armed conflicts. Far-right outsider Abelardo de la Espriella and center-right Sen. Paloma Valencia will meanwhile fight for a spot in the runoff. Espriella would pursue heavy-handed efforts against guerrilla and criminal groups, harsh austerity and deregulatory measures, and strong alignment with U.S. interests, although his very limited support in Congress would undermine his ability to implement his agenda. Valencia would meanwhile combine fiscal consolidation, tax reduction and the resumption of extractive activities with a security strategy reliant on U.S. support; a center-right bloc in Congress would be able to advance most of her agenda.
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