What We're Tracking U.S.-Iran discussions, Israel-Lebanon negotiations. Discussions over a potential memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran will likely persist, but unless either the United States or Iran makes concessions on the sequencing of reopening the Strait of Hormuz or the future of Iran's highly enriched uranium, a diplomatic breakthrough remains unlikely. As such, there is a persistent risk of sporadic U.S.-Iran clashes, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, and of U.S. military escalation to try to break the political deadlock. Separately, the next round of U.S.-mediated Israel-Lebanon negotiations are scheduled for June 2-3. Israel's ongoing military operations in Lebanon and major gaps between Israeli and Lebanese demands, however, make progress unlikely. Ethiopians vote. Ethiopia will hold general elections June 1 for the country's lower house and regional assemblies.