Editor's Note: In the coming year, RANE will analyze the implications of shifting demographic trends around the world. This series will be published periodically throughout the remainder of 2026; you can find all parts here . With their population growth flatlining, Gulf states will double down on narrow, specialized militaries supplanted by foreign forces to maintain their current social-military contract. But this will make them vulnerable to military supply chain disruptions and entanglement with their foreign protectors' strategies, while leaving them ill-equipped to offset a U.S. retrenchment or the collapse of Iran's government. The Iran war has tested the long-standing military-social contract in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, but there remains little sign of a popular or political surge in nationalist sentiment that would alter the long-standing culture of casualty aversion in their military establishments.