What We're Tracking U.S.-Iran diplomacy gains momentum. With the Iranians announcing a nominal reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. President Donald Trump largely focusing his rhetoric on how pragmatic Iran has become, the risks of an immediate military escalation and a return to war have diminished, while the momentum for another round of talks, potentially as soon as this weekend, has grown. There remain significant gaps between the two, and technical talks alone on complex issues like Iran's nuclear program will take months. Still, it appears neither the United States nor Iran wants a return to formal war, particularly now that the United States has imposed a ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah that has staved off military pressure on Iran's chief remaining proxy. As a result, the immediate threat of further supply disruptions and an open-ended closure of the strait has diminished.