The United States will announce (and in some cases implement) tariffs to pressure its trading partners into trade negotiations, triggering retaliatory threats against the United States and protectionist measures by other countries seeking to shield themselves from goods diverted from the U.S. market. The United States is unlikely to implement a broad 10% to 20% tariff in 2025, but rather to use the threat of large tariffs to drive countries to offer concessions such as promises to buy more U.S. exports or restrict exports of certain goods to the United States. As part of this strategy, the United States may announce a small tariff increase to demonstrate its resolve to implement the large tariffs. Any broad tariffs would likely have large carve-outs for certain goods, like raw materials, or for certain countries, like those with a trade surplus with the United States.