Trudeau's Struggles Will Paralyze Policymaking in Canada Ahead of Elections

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The national Parliament in the Canadian capital of Ottawa.

In Canada, a series of setbacks for the ruling Liberal Party is increasing the likelihood of early elections and political paralysis; even if they do not materialize, they will paralyze policymaking until the deadline for general elections next year. On Sept. 25, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party survived a no-confidence vote in Parliament brought by the opposition Conservative Party. Despite failing 211 to 120, the vote underscores the intense political pressure on Trudeau and his minority government. In the most serious blow to the government, the New Democratic Party on Sept. 4 announced its withdrawal from the confidence and supply agreement with the Liberal Party, which was signed in March 2022 and had allowed the Liberals to run a minority government following the September 2021 general elections. On Sept. 17, the Liberals lost a seat they had held for decades in a special election in Montreal. This was the second loss of a supposedly safe seat in just under three months, following a June 24 defeat in a special election in Toronto. Multiple party officials and politicians in recent weeks have left the Liberals, including Transport Minister Pablo Rodriguez, who resigned Sept. 19 and became an independent in Parliament.

The confidence and supply agreement between the NDP and the Liberal Party was the first formal deal at the federal level, resulting in NDP pledging to vote down any no-confidence votes against the Liberals in exchange for the Liberals prioritizing NDP policy priorities, including various health care initiatives, child care support, affordable housing investments and pro-labor policies.
In his Sept. 4 statement, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh accused the Liberals of being "too weak, too selfish and too beholden to corporate interests" to defeat the Conservatives in the next general elections, which are due by October 2025. While Singh also said his party would consider supporting future no-confidence votes against the Liberals, the NDP voted against the Sept. 25 no-confidence vote seemingly because polling shows the party would do even worse than the Liberals and poorly by the NDP's own standards in snap elections, which would be all but certain if a no-confidence vote passed.
Canada's parliamentary system requires the ruling party to maintain the support of a majority of the 338 members of the lower house of Parliament, the House of Commons. The Liberals currently have 153 seats, followed by the Conservatives with 119, the Bloc Quebecois (which also refused to back the Conservative's Sept. 25 no-confidence motion) with 33, the NDP with 25; and eight seats that are held by the Green Party or independents, or that are vacant.

The Liberal Party's political difficulties reflect declining popular support after nearly a decade in power, in contrast to surging support for the opposition Conservative Party. Trudeau took office November 2015 with a strong parliamentary majority that ended almost a decade of Conservative rule. While the Liberal Party lost its majority in the October 2019 general elections, Trudeau was still able to lead a minority government. In both governments, Trudeau delivered many of his campaign promises regarding his domestic agenda, including higher child care benefits, legal recreational marijuana, improved gender equality in government, various pro-Indigenous initiatives and, perhaps most controversially, a federal carbon tax. Nonetheless, since the September 2021 general elections, Trudeau's personal popularity and popular support for his Liberal Party have both dramatically declined, driven by a persistently high cost of living that has raised prices for everyday items and larger costs like housing. Meanwhile, even though Bank of Canada statistics show that the inflationary impact of the carbon tax has been relatively small, Trudeau's opponents have turned it into a major political liability for him. Moreover, popular pushback has emerged against problems with the national health care system, an immigration policy perceived as lax and various political controversies, including Trudeau's unprecedented decision to invoke extraordinary powers to quell the right-wing Freedom Convoy protests in January-February 2022. The opposition Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre have taken advantage of these and other developments to portray themselves as more competent and in touch with voters' concerns, and polling in the past two years has shown a sharp increase in popular support for the Conservative Party and a major decrease for the Liberal Party.

Polling averages show popular support for the Conservatives rising from approximately 29% at the beginning of 2022 to about 43% as of mid-September. By contrast, the Liberals have seen their support decline from about 32% to 24% in the same period. Trudeau's personal approval rating has seen an even worse decline, going from approximately even at 50% in favor and 50% against at the beginning of 2021 to approximately 66% disapproving and 30% approving of him as of mid-September.
For months, surveys have consistently shown that Canadians are most frustrated by the rising cost of living, particularly for food and housing. Canada's overall inflation rate peaked at about 8% in mid-2022 and has steadily declined since then, but surveys show that consumers blame the government for allowing costs to rise and for the interest rate rises that have increased the cost of borrowing as the central bank fights inflation.
Poilievre has railed against many of Trudeau's policies, chiefly the carbon tax. Among other things, he has also promised to tighten immigration rules, build new homes and curb crime. He has generally been light on details, and Conservative Party leaders have only promised to publish a formal platform closer to the next elections.

The mounting pressure on Trudeau's government is increasing the likelihood of early elections and, either way, will significantly slow policymaking in the coming months amid what is likely to be ongoing political volatility. Although Trudeau's government survived the Sept. 25 no-confidence vote, Poilievre has promised to call more motions in the coming months as early as the coming days, meaning the stability of the Liberals' minority government will be under constant threat. The NDP and Bloc Quebecois — both of which the Conservatives need to support any successful bid to topple Trudeau's government — backed the government Sept. 25, but the leaders of both parties have made clear that their continued support is not guaranteed and instead depends on the Liberals addressing their legislative priorities. Yves-Francois Blanchet, the leader of the Bloc Quebecois, has already released two requirements for continued support: an increase in seniors' pensions and more protections for the country's dairy and poultry sectors in future trade talks. But the pensions increase would be costly — Parliament's independent economic analysis office estimated it at a net cost of $16 billion over five years — at a time when Ottawa is scrambling to find money for other social programs, not to mention increase defense spending to begin to plug the major gap between the approximately 1.38% of gross domestic product it spends compared to NATO's 2% target. Blanchet has said his demands must be met by Oct. 29 or else he has threatened to begin talks with the Conservatives and NDP on toppling the Liberals' government. For his part, the NDP's Singh has said he will decide how to vote on future no-confidence motions on a case-by-case basis. With the NDP's counterparts in British Columbia and Saskatchewan running in contentious provincial elections in October, and with the NDP currently polling poorly at a national level, early elections coinciding with the two provisional ones are currently not in its interest. But Singh's calculations could change once the two provincial votes are over, especially if Blanchet makes good on his threat, as this would incentivize the NDP to cooperate with the Bloc Quebecois and Conservatives to further distance the party from the Liberals to try to improve electoral changes. Even if the Liberals survive further no-confidence votes in the coming months, policymaking will significantly slow as the government must dedicate more attention to shoring up sufficient support in Parliament and preparing for the general elections, as campaigning will soon overtake governing. The Liberals' expected poor showing will also incentivize more party leaders and politicians to quit, while also increasing the likelihood that Trudeau tries to reshuffle his Cabinet to energize the Liberals' flagging campaign, both of which would introduce further political volatility that would undermine policymaking.

While more no-confidence motions are all but certain in the coming weeks and months, a vote on next year's budget in the spring of 2025 would be a natural trigger for a vote to succeed if Trudeau cannot find sufficient support to pass the budget.
Trudeau has faced pressure from some within his party to not stand in the next election, but nothing so far suggests he is seriously considering withdrawing from the race. The Liberal Party is closely associated with Trudeau personally (his father, Pierre, was a four-time Liberal prime minister), meaning that a new candidate could somewhat improve its electoral chances. But polling currently shows the Conservatives with such a commanding lead that the Liberals would almost certainly still lose.
Whenever the next elections occur, an expected parliamentary majority for the Conservative Party would result in significant foreign policy continuity, but major changes to domestic policy. Among other things, the Conservatives are almost certain to pare down, or completely eliminate, the carbon tax (and other environmental measures), cut social programs and lower taxes.